The Washington Capitals made it back to the playoffs last season, but were ousted pretty quickly by New York Rangers in the first round. The type of game they played last season was not sustainable and that's why they had a quick exit in the playoffs. Frankly, they were not a very good team last year and managed to get in by pure luck. How bad were they? The Capitals had the worst goal differential since 1991 (-37). The offense was putrid last season, but the defense was average at best as they were 16th in goals allowed per game (3.07). The question will be, did they improve? Is this team now a capable playoff side? Well, let's see.
How Bad Were The Capitals In 2023-24
Offensively last season, yikes! 28th in goals per game (2.63) and 5v5 shot attempts per 60 minutes (53.48) and their powerplay was 18th (20.6%). Three players posted points scored more than 35 last season. Three! And the same goes for the number of players who scored goals of 20 or more. Defensively was subpar too as Washington was 24th in 5v5 shots allowed per 60 (62.46) and 22nd in expected goals allowed per 60 (2.7), plus roughly average on the power play as they finished 19th in penalty killing (79%). The aging core (Tom Wilson, Alex Ovechkin, Evgeny Kuznetsov, T.J. Oshie, and John Carlson) all posted negative numbers of defensive goals above replacement. Ovechkin posted the worst at -8.7. Yeesh! Even players like Joel Edmundson, Hendrix Lapierre, Rasmus Sandin, Nick Jensen, and Connor McMichael posted negative numbers. That being said, there were some key players and youngsters who posted positive numbers such as Trevor van Riemsdyk, Martin Fehervary, Alex Alexeyev, Nic Dowd, Sonny Milano, Aliaksei Protas, and Dylan Strome. The numbers for van Riemsdyk (9.2) was very good, though he has always been an analytical darling. So that being said, a lot of changes were needed in the offseason if they wanted to be a capable playoff side.
Who Are The New Additions?
Pierre Luc-Dubois-Forward
Logan Thompson-Goalie
Jakob Chychrun-Defenseman
Brandon Duhaime-Forward
Taylor Raddish-Forward
Matt Roy-Defensemen
Jakub Vrana-Forward
Andrew Mangiapane-Forward
The Pierre Luc-Dubois addition is an interesting one as it helps get a bad contract for the Capitals (Darcy Kuemper) off the books and while they are taking over Luc-Dubois', there is at least some upside. He is a very talented player and while he has changed a lot of teams the last couple of years as everyone feels like a change of scenery should help his production, it seems like this is a good fit for him especially with his talent and could play on the first line with Ovechkin. Dubois has scored 60 points or more three times in his career, so if he gets the opportunities to do a lot more on offense like expected, this offensive output for the Capitals should be significantly better. Chychrun has hit 30 points or more three times including a career high of 41, so that helps a lot too if he can put up similar production. Raddysh might have disappointed last year, but in 2022-23 he did score 20 goals and had 57 assists and that could be something potentially could help Washington. Mangiapane has shown potential to be a great scorer as he scored 35 in 2021-22, but never scored 20 anytime else thus suggesting he needs more help to score more goals. Vrana will be valuable depth as while he might not play a high line, he could be sneakily the most valuable addition this offseason, plus he has played in D.C. before, so familiarity helps a lot too. Duhaime looks to be a good fourth line forward and hope to gel in so much that he brings a lot of production. Roy and Chychrun should make the defense significantly better as Roy posted a 6.1 defensive goals above replacement and Chychrun at 2.2. While some of the other additions have negative defensive numbers, the defense improves a lot with just those two. Thompson has shown to be a solid backup goalie with Vegas and that should help the Capitals if a backup plan is needed. Thompson had a .909 save percentage last season which is solid for a backup goalie.
Who Are The Subtractions?
Beck Malenstyn-Forward
Nick Jensen-Defenseman
Nicolas Aube-Kubel-Forward
Joe Snively-Forward
Max Pacioretty-Forward
Darcy Kuemper-Goalie
Lucas Johansen-Defenseman
Matt Philipps-Forward
Not much is really lost here. Jensen showed how much negative production he provided both offensively and defensively last season and over his time in Washington. Pacioretty doesn't have the same potential as Dubois. Aube-Kubel is good depth, but good depth can still be replaced. Kuemper really has struggled and has shown to be a liability, so that helps losing him. Snively and Malenstyn were fun depth players with great potential, but ultimately are not too much of losses.
Is The Goaltending Situation Fixed?
Darcy Keumper was an albatross for the Capitals as he struggled severely last season as he had a .890 save percentage and a -1.73 saved goals above expected and that is god awful. He had to go. Maybe it had a lot to do with how the Washington blue line wasn't all that good and he had to do a lot more than usual which will affect any goalie, but the best ones always can help themselves and Kuemper has shown that he couldn't adjust. So the job now goes to Charlie Lindgren who has shown to be a valuable player and ultimately took over the job last season. Lindgren's numbers are very good as he has a .911 save percentage. Now, he only had those numbers in 40 games which suggest that it could be a fluke, but he has shown over and over again that he should've been the guy over Kuemper. Thompson should at least help with a backup plan just in case Lindgren struggles and might eventually help himself get a starting job somewhere else as this could be a springboard for him, however, this could be a great potential for the duo to share the duties a little bit down the middle just so the workload doesn't affect them come the playoffs and at that point whoever has the hot hand would be the starter.
Prediction: Another lower seeded wild card berth.
Unfortunately this team, while improved, probably has a long ways to go before becoming a legitimate threat to win the Stanley Cup. There are still issues on defense, the numbers prove that, and that could be their downfall if they miss the playoffs. They are also going to miss both T.J. Oshie and Nicklas Backstrom, who are out for the entire season, despite them aging. That's a lot of experience lost and despite decline in their skills, still talented goal scorers. Relying on the youth is a double edged sword as while it will help with moving the puck a lot better, it's the lack of experience that could hurt. Head Coach Spencer Carbery should be able to have a more "complete" roster than the season before as it should be better than having a negative goal differential, but there will be struggles. Every Capitals fan knows that a rebuild is imminent, but just as long as Ovechkin is trying to break the goal record, the team will make all the moves they can to stay competitive. Oh, will he break the record? Screw it, why the hell not?! Yes he will!
Statistics provided from The Daily Faceoff
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