A few weeks ago it seemed like a pipe dream for Notre Dame to even be considered for the College Football Playoffs. Flash forward to this past Tuesday as the committee has ranked Notre Dame at 8 and a berth seems much more likely. Obviously the Irish control their own destiny, but with the ever changing results week to week, there's a better than 46 percent chance that they could make the playoffs. The Irish will certainly need a lot of help to get in, but what was once seemingly not going to happen has changed to being realistic.
That One Loss
Notre Dame only has one loss this season and that was at the hands of University of Cincinnati. Cincinnati is a very good team and there is some argument they should be ranked in the top four as they are now ranked at 5, so a loss to them looks better on the Irish's resume to get in. If Cincinnati was to win out including their conference championship game, it looks even better as they are 10-0 on the season currently. However, it's not quite set in stone if Cincinnati makes the playoffs that Notre Dame does as well. One thing that affects Notre Dame's chances is that Cincinnati's strength of schedule. There is nothing Cincinnati can do to about that, but their strength of schedule is 100th and their last few opponents they have played, those teams were a combined 9-30. That's atrociously bad and a very low strength of schedule.
Cincinnati fans feel slighted by the rankings, but to be fair, their strength of schedule is low and even in some of their wins the last few weeks they have squeaked by not playing at a dominating level. The next two opponents for Cincinnati (SMU and East Carolina) are decent teams and will help Cincinnati's chances certainly if they win both of those games, plus winning the American Athletic Conference Championship against Houston. SMU is 8-2 and third in the conference, but can score a lot of points as that will be a test for the Cincinnati defense. East Carolina is in fourth and are a good team. Then Houston (who's technically in first at the moment) is a ranked team as they are 24th. So the last part of the schedule is in Cincinnati's favor to make the playoffs especially if they dominate. That being said, if Cincinnati loses one of those games, then not only does it end their own chances of making the playoffs, it affects Notre Dame. Some seem to think that if Cincinnati loses that it greatly benefits Notre Dame, but that "good" loss suddenly looks bad. While Cincinnati's recent win against South Florida looks good, their victories over Tulsa (28-20), Tulane (31-12), and Navy (27-20) have not. So with the recent results and strength of schedule, it does not help either team to make the playoffs unless both win out. If Cincinnati dominates in their last three games against much better opponents, then it certainly gives both a great chance. That's why Irish fans need to root for Cincinnati.
What's The Path To Make The Playoffs?
After fully analyzing what Cincinnati does to help Notre Dame's chances, you have to take a look around the country to see how else they benefit. There's one way that absolutely benefits Notre Dame is how the SEC Championship plays out. Both Georgia and Alabama are essentially booked to play each other and are both ranked 1 and 2 with Georgia ranked as the 1 seed. With both sides most likely to win the rest of their regular season games, they will meet in the SEC Championship as the best teams in the nation. On this date, Notre Dame fans will have to root for Georgia as Alabama has one loss and another loss would most likely open so much for the playoffs as that will mean Alabama, with two losses, would most likely miss going to the playoffs. It's still possible Alabama could still get in with two losses, but highly unlikely. But if both teams lose a game before the SEC Championship, then things would get interesting and all this doesn't matter.
Over in the PAC-12, it essentially is the same deal as the SEC Championship as that championship game will have significant implications. With Oregon as the 3 seed in the playoffs currently, it's no question that this will be a game that all Irish fans will be watching. Oregon is expected to play Utah in the PAC-12 Championship, but also within weeks as they play this weekend and in the PAC-12 Championship. Utah has to win one of those games and Oregon is out. It would seem hard to see Oregon losing both games, but just one Utah wins helps Notre Dame's chances.
Then over in the Big Ten, that's where things become complicated. Michigan and Ohio State play next weekend and that's going to very contingent and complex on whether the Irish make the playoffs. Essentially, Notre Dame needs both to lose. If Ohio State loses this weekend to Michigan State, it complicates things even more as Ohio State is currently ranked 4, Michigan at 6, and Michigan State at 7. That one game in particular it might be wise for the Irish to root for Ohio State against Michigan State as that will give them a second loss. Then the next week, it would seem that a Michigan loss would also benefit Notre Dame as that will give them a second loss. But, in another scenario, either Michigan or Michigan State beat Ohio State, then it makes things even crazier as that could boost either of those teams chances at making the playoffs. So, depending on how things play out, in the Big Ten Championship, Ohio State/Michigan/Michigan State would take on Wisconsin, a foe that Notre Dame beat easily earlier in the season. In that contest, Irish fans have to root for Wisconsin no matter who they play as that gives whoever the Badgers beat a second loss. Essentially, Notre Dame fans have to see what happens in these games at Ohio State plays in. Hard to follow and very complicated, right? Phew!
While it might be still a narrow path to the College Football Playoffs, the Irish still have a very good chance at making it especially with how things have played out. Now, not all of these situations have to play out. As nice as that might be as it increases the Irish chances significantly for each of those to play out, having a lot of these scenarios happen gives Notre Dame an excellent chance of getting in and most likely in depending on what happens. It also helps that Notre Dame has the 21st strongest schedule in the country and they have taken advantage of that. Their last two games are against Georgia Tech and Stanford who are each 3-7 which means those are probable wins essentially ensuring them of winning out. But Notre Dame needs some help and there will have to be a lot of scoreboard watching these next couple of weeks. Things could get crazy, but crazy could benefit the Irish.
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