It's going to be interesting as to whom the Capitals will be protecting in the 2021 expansion draft, but either way the team is going to be losing a player who will join the new expansion side Seattle Kraken. Washington can select up to either seven skaters and a goalie or seven forwards, three defensemen, and a goalie in this expansion draft, but they have to be very selective as to whom will be left exposed. On the bright side, it could benefit the team as a player who is a massive cap hit could be selected and alleviate some cap space. However, someone is going to be taken and either the Capitals will be pleased or not. So let's take a look at whom might be protected.
The list is expected to be announced today at 10 AM and it's unclear which way the team will go. However, it would seem likely that Washington will protect seven forwards, three defensemen, and a goalie. Here are the players that would make the most sense to protect:
Goalie: Ilya Samsonov
Defensemen: Dmitry Orlov, John Carlson, Brenden Dillon
Forwards: Nicklas Backstrom (no movement clause), Lars Eller, Anthony Mantha, T.J. Oshie, Daniel Sprong, Tom Wilson, Conor Sheary.
Samsonov is still the future goalie here, so no shocker here. However, leaving Vitek Vanecek is a risky gamble. That being said, Vanecek is not likely to be selected. Defensemen seemed a bit easier to select as Orlov has been productive, there's no way the Capitals will let Carlson be exposed, and Dillon is a reliable player on the blue line. However, Dillon does have a sizeable cap hit worth $3.9 million and might be worth the gamble of leaving him exposed and be selected as it could alleviate the cap room. Michal Kempny is another option and is significantly cheaper than Dillon ($2.5 million) as he can play on the first line, but will he come back strong after being out all of this season? Trevor van Riemsdyk could also be selected as that depends on how the draft goes, so that's something to look for. In terms of the forwards, this was a bit tougher. Sheary is never likely to be selected by many teams to be protected, but coming at his cost for the type of production he provides, it's probably worth keeping him. Backstrom can't be moved, but as for the others? Wilson, Mantha, Eller, and Wilson are quality players and would make sense to keep, plus Sprong is underrated and is a good bottom six forward. Oshie would be a candidate to leave exposed since he does have a big cap hit, however, he is faithful to the organization and is still a good top six forward so he should be rewarded with loyalty. Even general manager Brian MacLellan has expressed that the team would like to keep Oshie around. Carl Hagelin is another option to protect, but his cap hit would be nice to have off the books. Evgeny Kuznetsov is an intriguing one though. Kuznetsov was left off because of cap reasons, but realistically he might be protected as Washington is trying to trade him this offseason. If the team is trying to trade Kuznetsov, then it might make some sense to get something in value back in a trade than to just leave him exposed. Alex Ovechkin is a free agent, so he doesn't qualify for the expansion draft, but there is likely a "gentlemen's" agreement between him and the organization to work out a new contract when the the draft is finished with and that he is essentially "protected" from being selected.
The only question that lingers is who will be selected? If there had to be a guess, it might be Nick Jensen. Jensen has not lived up to his contract and taking his cap hit off the books would be nice to have plus it could mean that Alex Alexeyev would have a clear path to making the roster and for having Martin Fehervary gain valuable minutes on the ice. Jensen costs about the same as Kempny, so he wouldn't be too much of a financial burden if he is selected by Seattle, but the Capitals would like to have his contract come off the books. He also is still young enough to where he could be a solid contributor and that alone is an attractive reason for him to be selected. However, that is all speculation and it will be interesting to see who will be selected from Washington's squad in this expansion draft.
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