This is the final part of a three part series that talks about an offseason need for the White Sox. In this series, it will be talked about how the Pale Hose will need to fill the need of starting pitching in 2021. For the third part of this series, it will talk about the free agent options and who are the options that fit best. This does not mean they will go this direction, but it is an option. Let's take a look at some players the club will take into consideration if they go the free agent route.
Chris Archer
Archer will be coming off thoracic outlet syndrome surgery which caused him to miss the 2020 season, but it might not be worth the risk signing him. If he is willing to take a cheap one-year deal to be a fifth starter, then absolutely should be considered as he has a lot of upside. However, being 32 years old and coming off surgery might mean that it's too risky of a signing, especially considering that the Sox are in pursuit of a World Series championship. This might be the type of signing if the team was still rebuilding.
Jake Arrieta
Arrieta used to be one of the top pitchers in baseball, but ever since his move to the Philadelphia Phillies, it's been a downward trajectory. This case is an interesting one as even though he is 35 years old, he still does offer upside. While the last two seasons could be chalked up to injuries, the numbers still don't look all that good. His best bet if he wants to be a part of the Sox is accepting a cheap one-year deal as the fifth starter. However, this is a big risk.
Trevor Bauer
Bauer is going to be the hottest commodity at starting pitching this offseason and he needs to be one of the top priorities for the Sox. Bauer just won the National League Cy Young award after having an incredible season with the Cincinnati Reds. He has mentioned that he prefers one-year deals, though has seemingly suggested he is open to longer terms. Considering he only allowed 14 earned runs in 73.0 innings pitched, yeah, he's that good. Bauer does tend to give up home runs a bit, but his ground ball rate is 41.6% in his career. The new pitching coach Ethan Katz could help out with that in a hitting friendly park. Some see him as wanting to be an ace, but Bauer has stated that he just wants to win. With the amount of good young talent the Sox have and the type of season they had in 2020, Bauer might be enticed to sign.
Mike Fiers
Fiers is a bit risky, but he's had good numbers the last couple of seasons. At 35 years old, his age is a big cause for concern, but if he's still been productive like he was with the Oakland Athletics, then it might be worth signing him to be a fifth starter. His career 38.7% ground ball rate would be an excellent fit for as a fifth starter as well as his veteran leadership, though he does not bode well in FIP as it's has been around 4.75 and 5.00 the last three seasons. However, with so many great options on the market, the Sox will prioritize trying to sign others.
Cole Hamels
Well, this would be interesting to see if Hamels signs with the Sox especially after being on a Sox podcast last offseason before he signed on with the Atlanta Braves the very next day. Hamels has been a consistently great pitcher in his career and him being a southpaw makes him even more intriguing. His career ground ball rate is 44.9%, 3.69 FIP, and a 3.43 ERA. Hamels made one start in Atlanta, but he did not play the rest of 2020 due to an injury. Him having come off a injury is a cause for concern and it might be wise to stay away. Signing Hamels would make the same type of sense like Archer, but it's hard pressed to find a good reason to bring him aboard despite his veteran leadership.
J.A. Happ
Happ is going to be 38 in 2021, so that is a big enough factor to not sign him, however, when digging at his numbers, he actually makes a better case than some already mentioned. His career ground ball rate is 40.2% and a 4.22 FIP suggesting that he should be considered seriously at the fifth starter spot. However, this is a move that a rebuilding club makes or the same type of deal that the Sox did with Gio Gonzalez last offseason. There's a lot to like about Happ, but it's unlikely the club signs him.
Corey Kluber
The fact that some saw Kluber standout on this list is exciting to say the least. Kluber was at one time such a dominating pitcher that any club would've loved to have had him. However, Kluber has had injury issues and that should raise some questions. He also will be 35 in 2021 and that's another thing to consider, however, for a fifth starter role, it would be a low risk/high reward situation. It could also benefit Kluber as he could sign a one year "prove it" deal and get a better contract next offseason with either the Sox or another team. There might be better options on the market for the team to pursue, but it wouldn't hurt signing him. The Sox should take a look into him.
Jon Lester
Lester has won three World Series championships for a reason and his veteran presence on a young Chicago Cubs team helped them win their first title in 108 years in 2016. Sure, Lester is going to be 37 years old in 2021, but he might be a player worth considering. Lester does provide veteran leadership, but he also has a career ground ball rate of 46.1%, 3.69 FIP, and 3.60 ERA. His 2020 season might not have been his best, but if Lester could fill in at fifth starter, that might be beneficial. However, it might be more likely to see the team pursue other options.
Mike Minor
While his 2020 season wasn't the best, Minor is only a year removed from a great campaign. The southpaw looked great in 2019, so one could hope that he regains his form for 2021. While Minor's FIP has looked great in his career, it has ranged between 4.64 and 4.43 the last three seasons which suggests that he might be on a downward trajectory and it could be risky to sign him. However, he could come in and be the fourth starter allowing Michael Kopech or Dane Dunning to be the fifth starter alleviating any pressure on them.
Charlie Morton
While Minor might be an option, Morton would be a better one. In fact, Morton is a player the team should pursue heavily for. He would be the perfect player to have as a fourth starter as Morton provides veteran leadership and good consistent numbers. Morton might be 37, but his numbers suggest that he is still a consistent player. Morton probably would be a bargain and could be a high reward. The one concern is that his ground ball rate was "worse" in 2020, but it was still pretty good and rarely lets up a home run. Morton's FIP has also been very good as he hasn't posted a FIP above 4.00 since 2015. That being said, he is 37 and could implode in 2021, but his numbers suggest he could be a great fourth starter for next season. Also, the Sox might try and sign someone to a long-term contract to fill that role. That remains to be seen, but it would be wise to find a player like Morton to fill the fourth starter spot for a season while Kopech and Dunning develop.
Jake Odorizzi
Odorizzi is coming off an injury and the Minnesota Twins might want to bring him back because of pitching depth, so those two factors right there might be tough for the Sox to sign him. Odorizzi might also want to earn a job to be an ace somewhere as well and that alone could make it tough to sign him. However, if he is willing to take a fourth starter role and wants to win a World Series championship, then a one-year "prove it" deal might be worth it. It's unlikely the front office will pursue him hard (if at all), but they should keep checking in with him.
James Paxton
Paxton is most likely to look for deal to be a 1 or 2 for a contender, but considering he is coming off an injury and is not getting the offers that he wants/deserves, it might be wise to take a one-year "prove it" deal. If Paxton was to sign on for a year as the fourth starter, then the Sox rotation would be incredibly deep. Paxton's career FIP is 3.31 as he has shown how great he could be and is only 32 years old. While he might be still in the prime of his career, it would be hard for the Sox to sign his services.
Rick Porcello
Porcello has really not pitched as well as his 2016 American League Cy Young award campaign in the last few seasons, but his best bet if he wants to play with the Sox is getting the fifth starters role. It's highly unlikely he will be at the top of their list, but if he's one of the last few options available depending on the situation, he might be worth a look at. Porcello's career ground ball rate is 47.2% and 4.06 FIP, something that might be worth considering.
Jose Quintana
A reunion with Quintana isn't a bad idea. He's at the point of his career where he's a swingman pitching out of the rotation and the bullpen. Quintana could be a nice player to slot in at the fourth or fifth starter and have pitch out of the bullpen come the playoffs. While he shouldn't get anything bigger than a one or two year deal, Quintana's advanced metrics might suggest that it's a worthy acquisition as he has a career 44.2% ground ball rate and 3.64 FIP. Sure, he's coming off an injury plagued season, but he might be worth it if he signs for cheap.
Masahiro Tanaka
There are two thoughts about signing Tanaka. The first thought is he should be Plan B if the Sox can't sign Bauer. The second is that even if they sign Bauer, they should still sign him to be their fourth starter as he would make their rotation deep. Tanaka has had a pretty good career with the New York Yankees, but what is even better about him is that he always pitches well in the postseason. That's enticing enough. His career ground ball rate is 47.5% and has a 3.91 FIP and that's a great addition to a club. In the postseason, he has only allowed 20 earned runs in 54.0 innings pitched (though he struggled in the 2020 playoffs giving up 11 earned runs in 8.0 innings). He's had some injury issues in the past, but it doesn't seem to be too much a problem. Either way, Tanaka is another player that the Sox should pursue heavily as well.
Taijuan Walker
Walker had a career resurgence last season and pitched very well. Walker is likely wanting to command a bit of money as he showed he's still an effective pitcher and had overcome his injury problems, but it might be tough to justify signing him unless he is willing to take the fourth starter role and not sign for all that much. That being said, the Sox should keep tabs on him as he might be worth signing.
Most likely to be the starter: Bauer and Tanaka. The reason there are two names here is because the team is expected to be big spenders this offseason and will want to build as much depth in the rotation as possible. Bauer should be top priority, but signing Tanaka as well will make the Sox starting pitching very good. There are other players like Quintana, Morton, and Kluber who could fit in where Tanaka would pitch if Tanaka went somewhere else, but Paxton should also be another name considered. Had Archer not had down years in Pittsburgh and was recovering from surgery, then he should be considered, but there's too many factors against him. Starting pitching should be a priority this offseason and there's plenty of good options on the market to choose from.
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