Ivan Nova came to the White Sox in hopes of stabilizing a rotation that struggled mightily in 2018. Nova has had a history of success with the New York Yankees and for a struggling Pittsburgh Pirates, but since he's been with the White Sox, it's not been pretty. So, with that in mind, the question is what to do with him. This article should help answer that.
Nova had a mixed bag results with the Yankees, but his overall performance was good as he won 53 games and had a 4.41 ERA with a 6.7 K/9 rate. However, his ERA consistency with the Bronx Bombers was mixed as in 2011 and 2013 it was 3.70 and 3.10 respectively. Then in 2012 and 2015, his ERA was 5.02 and 5.07 respectively. 2010 and 2014 are hard to quantify as in 2010 he was called up to serve as a reliever before being inserted into the rotation and dealt with injuries in 2014. In 2016, his numbers with the Yankees are a bit skewed because he split time between as a starter and a reliever, but once he was traded to the Pirates, his numbers stabilized. With a rebuilding Pittsburgh squad, he won 25 (lost 25) games and had a 3.99 ERA, though in 2017 and 2018 it was 4.14 and 4.19 respectively (it's at 3.99 because in 2016 it was 3.06 in the 11 games he started for them). Yes, those are basic statistics, but it does show that he was capable of being consistent and that may have had a lot to do with what type of ballpark he pitches in. Yankee Stadium is a hitter's haven (though considering he has had a mixed bag of results for the Yankees, that point might be moot), while PNC Park favors pitchers (though that depends on the wind on occasions). Guaranteed Rate Field is a hitter's park, so that may have a lot to do with his number's in 2019.
So in just the basic of statistics, Nova has been atrocious as he is 3-5 with a 6.24 ERA in 2019. His strikeout rate is down at 5.4, 12.3 hits per nine, and he has allowed 46 earned runs in 66.1 innings pitched. That's brutal. In terms of advanced statistics, he has a -0.5 WAR, 71 ERA+, 5.49 FIP, 1.643 WHIP, and .353 BABIP. That's vomit inducing statistics. However, the statistics, whether it's basic or advanced, don't tell the full story.
When researching his game logs, a pattern formed. When Nova has pitched in seven games on the road (43.1 innings pitched and 22 earned runs), his ERA was a respectable 4.59. However, that number is a bit skewed as he allowed six earned runs against Detroit and nine against Baltimore, but when factoring those two games out, it's a lot more digestible as in the 31 innings pitched, he has only allowed seven earned runs for a 2.03 ERA. It might suggest that Nova does pitch better in pitcher's parks.
Another thing to factor in is that in the 12 starts he has had thus far this season, six of them have been quality starts, so there is signs of his stuff being there, but he needs to keep it up. There's also another sign of hope that he is getting back into the swing of things, in his last three starts (19 innings pitched and seven earned runs) he has a 3.32 ERA. The only issue is that he has allowed 22 hits (10 vs Houston in 7.0, 6 vs Kansas City in 5.0, 6 vs Cleveland in 7.0) in those 19 innings, however, he is at least getting the job done and it's been much better results.
What all that suggests is that when his stuff is on, he is really good. When his stuff is off, he is really bad. The best way of putting it is that he is consistently inconsistent. While the recent results are encouraging, Nova needs to find consistency. While his cumulative statistics are not great, it just does not support the full story.
So, what do the White Sox do with him? It's quite easy, you let him keep pitching. The last three starts should be encouraging as it shows some sort of consistency, which the rotation desperately needs. He is a free agent at the end of the year, so it doesn't hurt to let him pitch the rest of the season as he is unlikely to return. Like his career, this season has been a mixed bag of results, but he is working with pitching coach Don Cooper and he will help a lot. However, with Manny Banuelos and Dylan Covey as the four and five in the rotation, needing Nova to pitch better will be absolutely vital.
However, in a theoretical situation where Nova suddenly cannot pitch to save his life, then decisions will have to be made, though that is unlikely. In that situation, the situation might have to come to whether designating him for assignment or giving him his outright release. His contract isn't too steep as he is set to make $9.17 Million and that could be easy enough money to swallow, however, with struggling players like Yonder Alonso and Welington Castillo being prime candidates to DFA, that is a lot of money to give up willingly. If Nova suddenly cannot pitch well, then the easy decision would be to promote prospect Dylan Cease. While Cease has not been as dominant as some might have hoped at AAA, just looking at his numbers show that he's still been very good. The other three options would be Odrisamer Despaigne, who in three games pitched has a 2.25 ERA, Justin Nicolino, who has a 3.99 ERA in five starts, and southpaw Ross Detwiler, who in three starts has a 3.71 ERA. Nicolino, Despaigne, and Detwiler all have had major league experience with some success, and that's valuable to have.
With all the theoreticals and everything else, the best course of action with Nova is to stand pat. There is a lot of encouraging signs with him and that could help boost his value to trade. Otherwise, he could be a stable presence in the rotation for the rest of 2019 and that really would be nice for this rotation for a team that has suddenly vaulted themselves into playoff contention.
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