With today being North Carolina's first game of the ACC Tournament, it's now make or break for the Tar Heels to be selected for the NCAA Tournament. While this season has been a disappointment, there's still some chance at redemption. UNC looked like a sure national title contender at the beginning of the season, but with a 20-12, 13-7 ACC Play record, those hopes have dwindled considerably. Right now, many suspect the Tar Heels to be right on the bubble of making it, but this ACC Tournament has to be what catapults them into the Big Dance.
UNC rallied off an impressive end to their ACC campaign before the tournament started by winning six of their last seven games only losing to Duke (seven of their last nine including a loss to Clemson). In those six wins, their offense went off scoring 80 or more points including three straight victories scoring 90 or more. While the loss to Duke at the end of the season stings, those types of performances to close things out might actually be the team's saving grace. Winning the ACC Tournament will undoubtedly be the best way to enter the tournament considering it guarantees you an automatic bid, but a deep run should help at least. Recent form and a deep run will only probably get the Tar Heels low seed, but an automatic bid at least would be the most ideal way to get in.
The first matchup is against Notre Dame who are the 12 seed. The Irish are not a very good team and it should be an easy victory for UNC, but this is March Madness, so don't take any team for granted. That also isn't a marquee win for them to get in either. That being said, they must win this one. The next matchup would be against the four seed, Wake Forest whom the Heels lost narrowly to earlier in the season 67-66. Both UNC and Wake Forest have the same record in the conference and the score in their game suggests this is an even matchup, however, with the Heels' recent form, this could bode well for their tournament chances though it does not guarantee a spot in the Big Dance. The next game after that will be against presumably Duke, but the Blue Devils still have to play either Georgia Tech or Virginia. Obviously Duke would be the favorite especially with them boasting the likes of Cooper Flagg, however if UNC play them close or even win, then it's essentially a lock they'll make it in. Pretty simple math. That being said, the likely outcome would be two wins and a loss unless Duke gets upset which is entirely possible. Don't count out the Heels winning over Duke though, it is March Madness after all. If the likely outcome does occur though, then UNC is still on the bubble and will have to hope to have some help in other tournaments.
That being said, even if they are on the bubble, one or two of the teams that are the "Last Four In" loses in their respective conference tournaments, then the Heels are in. While I personally believe the breadth of their resume gets them in, UNC needs help for it to be a sure thing. Recent form helps and even the difference in points in a victory does too, but wins matter more here. If the Heels wins this whole ACC Tournament, then there isn't much to worry about.
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