Everyone should’ve seen it coming. Even as way back as when schools like Maryland and Rutgers decided to jump ship and leave their respective conferences for the Big Ten. Should’ve seen it coming when Oklahoma and Texas announced last year that they were joining the SEC. Now, everyone should see it coming after USC and UCLA becoming members of the Big Ten in the next couple of years. It’s about time that the question that seemed so easy for Notre Dame fans before, now is becoming more and more clear in a much different way than some might’ve thought a few months ago. That question is about whether to join a conference or not.
While there was an article on Bar Room Sports Talk Network that touched on it a couple years ago about joining the ACC, now this one will essentially piggyback on that one from 2020. Almost seemingly prophetic, the article suggested why it might be wise for Notre Dame to join a conference. That being said, it didn’t quite see this coming.
So what’s coming? Unless you have been living under a rock, it seemingly looks like there are going to be two superconferences. Those two superconferences? The two biggest ones currently, Big Ten and SEC. Those two conferences have the most fans, biggest exposure, largest amount of money, and recognizable brands. It’s understandable why schools would move into these conferences, but unfortunately money speaks more than what college sports really mean.
For the longest time it made sense why Notre Dame should stay independent. However, within the last 20 years, the landscape changed, just most people didn’t see it until a decade ago. Now everyone is seeing it, it’s time to decide the future on where the football team plays. Many fans who want to continue independence, well, there really isn’t much that keeps that going no matter what the narrative might be. Let’s just look at facts.
First thing fans who defend independence will say is look at the television contract with NBC. While maybe 15 years ago it was a reasonable point to be made, now it doesn’t hold much water. Notre Dame makes roughly $15 million from the contract to show their games and will continue to earn that annually until 2025. However, when the Big Ten Network debuted in 2007, money spoke and changed everything. Also, the amount of money that each the SEC and Big Ten gets as of 2020 and is dispersed to each member of their respective conferences is hard to ignore. The SEC earned $777.8 million in 2020, while the Big Ten earned $680 million. Each school in the SEC earned $54.6 million while each in the Big Ten netted $46.1 million. That seems just playing in a conference makes more money than an independent with a TV deal does. Notre Dame even made $36.1 million while forcefully having to play in the ACC in 2020 while also setting a league record that year, which is very evident because the Irish played in the conference that season. If the school can help a conference bring in that amount of money and break a record, imagine what they can do joining either SEC or Big Ten. Oh, and $54.6 million and $46.1 million is more than $36.1 million. Notre Dame joining a conference would not only bring more money in for themselves and for whatever conference they join, but just having their brand would mean the payout for all schools involved would be even bigger.
Then fans would point out the partnership with the ACC. While it makes sense to join the ACC because of the school essentially having one foot in with membership because all sports except hockey and football play in the conference, the money doesn’t make sense to join for a few years before the ACC essentially becomes extinct. The ACC has a TV contract that runs until 2035-36 which is also when the partnership with Notre Dame expires. However, that contract can be renegotiated which means if Notre Dame decides to leave, they have to payout an exit fee to the ACC. That being said, the school can easily make up for that loss by just payouts each conference gives out. Money talks.
Now, Notre Dame doesn’t need to panic and make a decision right away, but sooner rather than later would be ideal. The NBC television deal ends in 2025 and most of those schools that were mentioned would be joining their new conferences right around that time. So right now, staying independent is ideal and the right move. Once that deal is up, then thats probably when the school goes into a conference. However, Notre Dame should probably make their decision very soon especially with how things are circulating on the wires pertaining to realignment. If things get crazier, especially with the Big 12 trying to poach some schools from the Pac-12, then Notre Dame will have no choice. If schools like Clemson, North Carolina, and Florida State make moves soon, then essentially that will be very telling what is going to happen and a signal for Notre Dame to join a conference soon. While there are talks with NBC on a $75 million deal which would keep the Irish independent, the Big Ten is potentially working on a deal that is worth roughly $1 billion. If that is to happen, it makes sense to join that conference. While $75 million sounds nice, $1 billion deal for the Big Ten would most likely mean a bigger payout for all the schools. Notre Dame has left money on the table before, but that would be too good to pass up on.
That leads to the next point about what Notre Dame should do if there are two superconferences and why it makes sense to join one. With the playoffs being a thing and the likelihood that there is going to be postseason expansion as more teams are likely to play, it becomes increasingly harder to find where Notre Dame fits. The current model works the best for the school, but if Notre Dame continues to stay independent and is outside looking in when there’s two superconferences and more teams in the playoffs, then it’s practically impossible to find a place for the Irish in there. It would also affect scheduling and that would also hurt Notre Dame. That right there should make it fairly obvious.
Notre Dame is a massive brand and it would only mean that both conferences would heavily pursue them. Whoever has the school in their conference not only will mean more money and national recognition, but also the value of the league just gets bigger. That being said, it makes more sense to join the Big Ten just because they are smack dab in the middle of that part of the country. It would also maintain rivalries with USC and Purdue.
One of the biggest problems with college football lately has been the lack of big games. Two superconferences would essentially fix that problem. If Notre Dame is in the mix, then you get a massive brand to play another big time power like Ohio State or Michigan. The Irish would have to play more big games which also means more money. Regardless of tradition and the uniqueness of being an independent, it’s inevitable that Notre Dame joins a conference.
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