The Washington Football Team will play host to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in the Wild Card round of the 2020 NFL Playoffs at FedEx Field. Washington went 5-2 en route to winning the NFC East Division albeit a weak one. However, Washington will have a chance to prove that they belong and make a deep postseason run. Washington faces a Tampa Bay team that is stacked with a wealth of offensive talent surrounding future Hall of Fame quarterback Tom Brady as he has weapons like Chris Godwin, Rob Gronkowski, Ronald Jones, Leonard Fournette, Mike Evans, LeSean McCoy, and Antonio Brown. While Brady and his weapons are a powerful group, Washington has a core of young talent that looks to be the future of a potential strong contender. The question here is how do each team stack up against one another? Let's take a look.
Washington's defense is extraordinary as they are the second ranked defensive corp in all of the NFL with 304.6 yards allowed per game and fourth in scoring defense at 20.6 points allowed per game. Their pass defense was ranked third overall and were second in yards allowed per game. Washington's pass rush was outstanding this year and the biggest reason for the success of the defense as they had 47 sacks and ranked 12th with 97 QB hits, so one can expect them to induce a lot of pressure. Montez Sweat, Jonathan Allen, Daron Payne, Tim Settle, and Chase Young should give Brady a lot of problems. The entire defense was fourth in points per game (20.6) and tied for seventh in turnovers suggesting they are one of the more elite sides at defending their side of the field. Plus they ranked sixth on third down percentage and fourth on red zone percentage. The rush defense was a bit more pedestrian as they ranked 11th in yards per carry (4.2) and 14th in yards per game (112.8).
The Buccaneers' offense is a very potent one as they were third in pass completions for over 20+ yards with 67 of them. Brady went 40 touchdowns with 12 interceptions and had a 102.2 rating in 2020, the most touchdowns thrown since 2007. The total offense for Tampa Bay ranked third in points per game (30.8) and seventh in yards per game (384.1). The offensive line was also fantastic as they ranked fourth with only 22 sacks allowed according to Pro Football Focus. The offense was 11th on third down percentage and seventh on red zone percentage. In their current four game win streak, the offense has been especially potent as they have averaged 37 points per game including scoring 47 and 44 in their last two.
The Buccaneers defense was also very strong as they were 8th in points per game and sixth in yards per game, but mostly in the rush defense as they ranked first in yards per carry (3.6) and in yards per game (80.6). With players such as Ndamukong Suh, Shaquil Barrett, and Jason Pierre-Paul on the rush defense, that helps a lot especially as they were tied for fourth with 48 sacks and had 116 QB hits. However, their pass defense was shaky as they were 21st in yards per game and 29th in completion percentage though they did tie for seventh in interceptions (15).
Washington's offense was not very good, however, it has come around better ever since Alex Smith became the starting quarterback despite his sub-par numbers. That being said, him being 5-1 as the starter says a lot. The offensive line on paper coming into this game looks to be the weakest link as they ranked tied for 29th in sacks allowed with 50, but in the second half of the season, they have become a much more cohesive and stronger unit. The numbers don't look good for Washington's offense as they ranked 30th in yards per game (317.3) and only had a 20.9 yards per game margin, but they have looked a lot better and have seemed to have found a rhythm ever since Smith became the starter.
Keys To Winning
Pressure Brady
While the defense might be outstanding, Brady is a future hall of fame player for a reason as his veteran play has been a reason for his ability to beat even the best of defenses. However, Brady tends to not do well against defenses whose strongest suit is their pass rush as evident in the New York Giants' play in both Super Bowl wins against him when he was with the New England Patriots. No matter how good Tampa Bay's offensive line might be, Washington's pass rush is hard to block for any opposing offensive line. So they must apply pressure as much as possible and hope to either get to Brady or hope that he is forced into making an erratic throw in which the secondary can take advantage of. Brady only completes the ball 33.7% of the time when pressure is applied, so it really is imperative for them to make things uncomfortable as possible for him.
Establish Consistency In Passing The Ball
While Washington's offense is not the strongest unit, they do pass the ball more often than not and have plenty of options to throw to. Terry McLaurin, Logan Thomas, Antonio Gibson, J.D. McKissic, Peyton Barber, and Cam Sims all will be go to's for Smith, but with the addition of Lamar Miller and the promotion of Dontrelle Inman from the practice squad, it should make Washington's pass offense harder to contain. And with the Buccaneers' pass defense being as terrible as they are, Smith will need to take advantage of that.
Contain Ronald Jones And Leonard Fournette
While the secondary is going to have their hands full with all the passing options Brady has, Ronald Jones and Leonard Fournette are a strong tandem that is hard for any defensive unity to contain. While Fournette is a great option, Jones is the hardest as he averages 5.1 yards per carry. It will be especially more difficult when both of them are on the field, so Washington will have to be more on their toes than usual when that occurs. It's not an easy matchup, but they do have a chance to contain them.
Get Creative On The Ground
Washington's trio of Gibson, McKissic, and Barber are a decent one, but they are facing off against the best rush defense in the league. While there might not be a best formula to play against them, they'll have to find a way to get creative when running the ball. It might mean getting extra blockers on certain players, but they must have to find a way to get around Tampa Bay's rush defense.
Protect Alex Smith At All Cost
While the numbers listed above looks bad for the offensive line, the unit has actually looked good in the second half. It might be the biggest reason for Smith going 5-1 despite subpar numbers. However, this is a defensive unit that gets to the quarterback a lot as evidenced by the numbers mentioned above. They haven't faced a defense like this at all during the regular season, so this unit will have to protect Smith at all cost, especially with Smith dealing with a calf injury. It's going to be difficult and Smith might be sacked at least a few times, but the offensive line will have to limit what damage the Buccaneers defense does.
Hope For Alex Smith To Be Healthy
A strange injury to Smith's calf that is unrelated to his previous leg injury he endured in 2018 that nearly costed not only his career, but his life, has been a big talking point the last month as Dwayne Haskins (before being released) and Taylor Heinicke have had to fill in. There is talk that Washington might have to rotate Heinicke and Smith, but there's a good chance that not only will they have to play Heinicke a lot, but have him even start. So if Heinicke starts, the point above will apply more to him. However, if Smith is good to go, then that will be extremely helpful especially with his veteran experience.
This absolutely is a winnable game for Washington as the matchup against Tampa Bay is much more favorable than some might think. There might be some pundits thinking it won't be anything close, but Washington's defensive front has been the strongest reason for their run to the playoffs. It's also something that will keep them competitive in any game they play in. It only comes down to how much can they take advantage of the Buccaneers' pass defense and containing the damage done by their offense. Expect a close and exciting game that could go either way.
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