Bath currently sits in sixth place on the Premiership table with 30 points, in position to qualify for the Champions Cup and five points out of a playoff position, so the last nine games of the season will be crucial. Now with a proposed and agreed upon date for an August 15th restart to finish the 2019-20 campaign due to the COVID-19 pandemic, Bath will finally have a chance to clinch a playoff spot and a Champions Cup spot. However, the question here will be whether they can actually make it to the playoffs. Let's take a look.
So when looking at the table, one might think that with nine matches left and only five points out that the club has a chance to make it, but there is one key factor here that makes hard for them to achieve that goal. The factor is the points difference as Bath sits at -52 as they have scored 241 points versus 293 given up. That is going to be hard to make up especially with scoring only 24 tries versus 37 given up. If the club wants to make the playoffs, they essentially will have to win almost every single one of those matches and maybe get a few bonus points. Realistically, that is going to be a tough hill to climb unless they manage to score a lot of points out of the gates and consistently hold opposing teams to 20 points or less per match, which is very hard to do and unrealistic.
The hope is with the signings of Ben and Will Spencer and Juan Schoeman, the club can consistently put up some more points and win more matches so they can qualify for the playoffs. However, a Champions Cup spot is not out of the realm of possibility and that could easily be clinched. That being said, looking at the remaining fixtures might give a good idea of how the team will do.
Bath will play London Irish and Leicester Tigers in the first two weeks and those are matches they should be able to win, though they should be careful about the London Irish as they are two points behind them (though the points differential of -95 makes things difficult for them). However, the next two after that will be crucial and probably will decide if the club makes it to the playoffs as they will have to play Northampton Saints and London Wasps, the two teams ahead of them in the table. Bath is actually closer to Northampton than to the Wasps because of points differential (-8 for the Saints as the Wasps are +11), meanwhile, they have won one more game than the Wasps (seven for Bath versus six for Wasps). Northampton has 35 points and sit in the fourth and final playoff spot, while Wasps have 33. So if the standings do not change when those two matches come up, a victory for Bath over Northampton with a bonus point could make things interesting and it could make things come down the wire at the end of the season with a potential for final week of the season drama. Harlequins will be the next match after Wasps and that will be an important match as well as they are behind by two points and have the same points differential. So, those three are going to be whether Bath makes the playoffs or not because if they do not perform well in those matches, the final four games will not be too kind to them as that will be the hardest stretch of the last nine contests of the campaign. The club will have to play Worcester Warriors (a winnable match), but then they play Sale Sharks, Gloucester, and Saracens. Yes, Saracens are relegated, but they still boast a lot of great players (despite some having left already) and can still be a difficult challenge for Bath. Despite the relegation, Saracens will love to play spoiler and if they can spoil Bath's chance at making the playoffs in the final match of the season, they'll relish in that. Sale is second in the table and are a very potent and solid club, however, Bath won the first match by a very narrow margin, so they might have a chance. The match with Sale could be a must-win depending on what the situation is at that point. Gloucester has been disappointing this season, but don't let that fool you as the club still boasts a potent offense. Bath barely nudged out a victory over Gloucester, but they are a difficult squad to play as the offense has a lot of talent on it especially with their new signing in winger Jonny May. That match will come down to the forwards and the scrum.
So, can Bath make the playoffs? Yes, but it's going to be extremely tough. There's too many factors to overcome and it's a tough schedule. It almost seems like everything will have to go right after for them to make it. Those final nine contests will be crucial as the margin narrows every week becoming more and more difficult if the club loses X amount of matches. Draws could be beneficial in certain situations, but Bath will need to win a lot if they want to make it. Be prepared for a very interesting and possibly very dramatic end to the season.
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